In a debate that will color when and how the Legislature adjourns, Gov. Butch Otter's Division of Financial Management has produced a new document outlining an improved revenue scenario for fiscal 2012 and 2013.
Otter's budget office says the state will collect $32.7 million in fiscal 2013 that Otter gave up on earlier in the session when he revised his revenue projection downward.
A one-page sheet making the rounds at the Statehouse since last week titled "Total Available Funds" restores the "foregone" fiscal 2013 revenue. The document argues that there is plenty of cash to pay for both tax relief and to replenish drained "rainy day" accounts.
Otter Chief of Staff David Hensley, who was working outside both chambers of the Legislature Friday, pointed to two lines on the sheet -- $35.7 million for income tax cuts at the highest rates in the House-passed H.B. 563 and $60 million in transfers to savings.
"Those are our points," Hensley said. Asked to elaborate, Hensley declined further comment.
But the document is being met with considerable doubt in the Legislature.
"There's all kinds of numbers floating around," said Sen. John Goedde, R-Coeur d'Alene. "My concern is we have realistic numbers."
House Speaker Lawerence Denney, R-Midvale, supports Otter on both spending priorities. But Denney is skeptical about the governor's rosier bottom line that says fiscal 2013, which begins in July, will wind up with $33.2 million in surplus after fulfilling Otter's tax cut and savings goals.
"I think there is room for both putting money in reserves and tax relief," Denney said. "But that $33 million I think is closer to zero. I think we'll leave some money on the table, but it won't be that much."
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Dean Cameron, R-Rupert, is even more wary, saying he believes there is only about $62 million available for both savings and tax cuts, $33 million below what Otter wants to spend.
"It's fuzzy math," Cameron said. "And the point was already decided when we set the revenue projection."
Otter also is arguing that fiscal 2012 will continue to run ahead of the forecast, picking up another $32.7 million. "They're wanting to count the money early," Cameron said. "In my opinion that's a very dangerous precedent. We still have the largest portion of our revenue stream to come in the last four months, most of it in April."
Cameron added that any surplus will be from sources that can't be counted on to continue. "This is one-time money and that is a problem on the Senate floor and a problem on the House floor. We shouldn't be using it for ongoing expenditures."
That, he said, includes the permanent income tax rate reduction in H.B. 563, which passed the House 49-20 on March 1.
Otter also includes $13.9 million from a national settlement for mortgage irregularities in his surplus calculation. Cameron said the figure is at least $600,000 too high and that some of the money can only be spent for specific purposes. The Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee will hold a hearing on the mortgage settlement Tuesday.
Otter has some important allies in the legislative end game, including Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry President Alex LaBeau.
"It's not an either-or game," LaBeau said. "There's more than enough to do it all. Having that document out there is very helpful."
Meanwhile, the Senate Local Government & Taxation Committee has yet to take up H.B. 563. The committee next meets on Tuesday.
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Source: http://voices.idahostatesman.com/2012/03/16/idahopolitics/pressing_tax_relief_and_savings_otter_suggests_restoring_327_mil
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